US soybean futures rose 2.1% on Friday, returning to $15 per bushel for the first time since mid-March, after the US Department of Agriculture’s forecast for 2023 plantings and its March 1 soy stockpiles estimate both came in below trade expectations, according to Reuters.
Corn futures ended mixed, with nearby contracts rising on the back of bullish US March 1 stocks data, while deferred contracts fell on the back of a larger-than-expected USDA plantings forecast.
May soybeans settled up 31 cents at $15.05-1/2 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) after reaching a high of $15.13-3/4 on March 13.
CBOT May corn finished 11 cents higher at $6.60-1/2 per bushel, while new-crop December corn finished a half-cent lower at $5.66-1/2. CBOT May wheat settled unchanged on the day at $6.92-1/4 per bushel, supported by higher-than-expected USDA wheat acreage.
Soybean futures rose after the government projected 87.5 million acres of soybean plantings in 2023, up only slightly from 2022 and near the low end of estimates in a Reuters poll of analysts. The USDA also reported March 1 soy stocks of 1.685 billion bushels, a 13% decrease from the previous year.
“The fact that soybean stocks are at the low end of trade expectations stands out. That… appears to imply that price rationing may occur “said Karl Setzer, Mid-Co Commodities’ brokerage research lead.
The USDA estimated maize quarterly stocks at 7.401 billion bushels, the lowest for March 1 in nine years. Looking ahead to this spring, the USDA forecasted 92 million acres of corn plantings in 2023, up 4% from 2022.
However, traders warned that wet weather in the southern reaches of the US crop belt, as well as heavy snow in the Dakotas and Minnesota, could make planting more difficult in the coming week.
“Until the snow melts in the northern US Plains, these acreage numbers are meaningless,” said Ed Duggan, senior risk management specialist at Top Third Ag Marketing.
CBOT wheat fell 12.6% in the first quarter of the year, while corn fell 2.7% and soybeans fell 1.2%.